Could Gambling Save Science: Encouraging An Honest Consensus

Part I of Essay
Visiting Researcher, The Foresight Institute P.O. Box 61058, Palo Alto, CA 94306 USA hanson@charon.arc.nasa.gov 510-651-7483 To appear in Social Epistemology, 1992. (version appeared: in Proc. Eighth Intl. Conf. on Risk and Gambling, London, 7/90.) C O U L D ....

Part II of Essay
.... After reviewing the discrepancy between what we want from academic institutions and what we get from current institutions, a market-based alternative called "idea futures" is suggested. It is described through both a set of specific scenarios and a set of detailed procedures. Over thirty possible problems and objections are examined in detail. Finally, a development strategy is outlined and the possible advantages are summarized. THE PROBLEM THE SCIENTIFIC REVOLUTION Four centuries ago, some Europeans complained tha ....